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Stephen Nover |
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| I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Aug 13, 2018 Indians vs Reds |
OVER 9 +105 |
Won $105 |
| Play Type: Free | ||
| I think I figured out why Homer Bailey remains in the Reds starting rotation despite being one of the worst pitchers in the major leagues. It's because he has a $105 million dollar contract. I'm not going to lay this big of a road price with the Indians and Mike Clevinger, but I do see a way to fade Bailey and that's go Over the total. The Indians, after all, may reach this total just by themselves. Cleveland ranks No. 3 in the majors in runs and homers. The Indians lose their DH, but Great American Ball Park is one of the best hitting stadiums in the league. There isn't much wind, but the weather forecast calls for a clear night with high humidity. That's conducive for hitters. Bailey is 0-5 with a 6.44 ERA at home this season. His ERA was 6.43 last year. It was 6.65 two seasons ago and 5.56 in 2015. You would think the Reds just would eat Bailey's contract. Homer Simpson could pitch better than Homer Bailey. Clevinger has a 4.12 ERA in night games. He has a 7.15 ERA in two career starts against the Reds the last of which came on July 9 in a 7-5 Cincinnati victory. The Reds have scored at least four runs in 11 of their last 16 games. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover has his Baseball Game of the Year for the second half of the season going today in addition to this free selection.) | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Aug 13, 2018 Nationals vs Cardinals |
Cardinals -128 at BetPhoenix |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
| The rejuvenated Cardinals have made a move since naming bench coach Mike Shildt to relace Mike Matheny as manager. The Cardinals have won five consecutive series and sit just two games in back of the Brewers for the second wild card spot in the National League. St. Louis is 16-9 under Shildt and have its best pitcher going here, Miles Mikolas. The Cardinals catch the Nationals traveling after playing in the lone night game on Sunday. Washington could still be reeling from blowing a two-out 3-0 ninth inning lead in a 4-3 road loss to the Cubs last night. The Nationals lost when closer Ryan Madson gave up a grand slam homer to pinch-hitter David Bote. Madson said after the game that he is suffering from back pain and it has affected his pitching. So there's a good chance Madson isn't going to be available. The Nationals already are down their two best relievers with Sean Doolittle and Kelvin Herrera both injured and unavailable. This puts tremendous pressure on Nationals starter Tommy Milone, who is a journeyman and coming off a bad start. Milone had a 4.19 ERA in the minors before getting a call-up for the Nationals. Milone was rocked for seven runs on 10 hits - including three homers - in six innings during his past start, an 8-3 home loss to the Braves this past Wednesday. Washington has lost 18 of its last 26 road games. The Nationals are down mentally, have a weak fill-in starter going and a shot bullpen. Mikolas has emerged as an elite pitcher with a 12-3 record and 2.74 ERA. Mikolas has held six of his past seven opponents to two runs or fewer. He has given up three or fewer runs in nine consecutive games. The Nationals have never faced him. Advantage Mikolas. Washington has struggled at Busch Stadium, too, losing 23 of the last 31 times there. | ||
| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Aug 14, 2018 Nationals vs Cardinals |
Cardinals -103 at BetPhoenix |
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| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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The Cardinals have won six in a row. The Nationals are imploding losing their second straight game on a walkoff homer. Their bullpen is shot and the team has serious chemistry issues. They are seven games out of first in the NL East. St. Louis is 17-9 since Mike Shildt replaced MIke Matheny. The price is right to back the Cardinals again while fading the Nationals. St. Louis ranks sixth in the majors in slugging percentage and OPS versus lefty starters. The Cardinals are 19-15 against southpaws and draw lefty Gio Gonzalez, who is at his worst pitching on the road and at night. That's the case here. Gonzalez is 3-5 with a 4.26 ERA on the road. He's 3-6 with a 4.43 ERA in night games. Washington is 2-8 during his past 10 starts. St. Louis, which is a season-high nine games abovbe .500, is going with righthander John Gant. He's coming off a 7-1 victory against the Marlins where he gave up two hits, one walk and one run with four strikeouts in six innings. He threw just 63 pitches in that effort so he should be strong. The Nationals have lost 16 of their last 22 games when going against a righty starter. |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
