Alex Smart Alex Smart
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Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  May 24, 2018
Sparks vs Sun
+2½ -110 at GTBets
Play Type: Free

The LA Sparks travel out east to take on the Connecticut  Sun today in a game I'm betting favors the home side. The Sparks are 2-0 after beating the defending champion Lynx 77-76 in game 1 of their season and than blasting  Indiana by 17 points in the follow-up. With this being the Sparks  third straight road game of the season, I'm betting some fatigue could set in vs a strong and under rated Connecticut side that  absolutely annihilated the Las Vegas Aces, 101-65 in their opener .

CONNECTICUT is 17-7 ATS L/24 in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.CONNECTICUT is 15-5 ATS   when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last few seasons.CONNECTICUT is 13-4 ATS  L/17 after a combined score of 165 points or more dating back to last season. CONNECTICUT is 12-4 ATS L/16  after one or more consecutive overs .

LOS ANGELES is 31-50 ATS   off a road win by 10 points or more since 1997.Agler is 8-20 ATS   as a road favorite of 3 points or less in all games he has coached since 1997

NBA Road favorites (LOS ANGELES) - excellent offensive team from last season - scored 75 or more points/game, after a win by 10 points or more are 5-23 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.

NBA Road favorites (LOS ANGELES) - poor defensive team from last season - allowed 72 or more points/game, after a win by 10 points or more are 8-29 ATS L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Connecticut Sun to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 24, 2018
Orioles vs White Sox
White Sox
+127 at betonline
Play Type: Premium


Baltimore enters this tilt vs the White Sox experiencing a disappointing season to this point, while the Pale Hose have been exhibiting  an uptick in their performance date as they shake themselves out a funk off their own after having won 4 of their L/5 games and are off a 11-1 smash down of the O's yesterday. Baltimore will now send the supposed ace of their pitching staff right-hander Dylan Bundy (2-6, 4.70 ERA)  out to the hill to make his  11th start of the season. The  power pitcher  has really struggled of late as he mimics his teams lack of success. Since April 26, Bundy is 1-4 with a 9.41 ERA in five starts. He has allowed 23 earned runs in 22 innings, including  12 home runs and he  has given up at least three home runs in three of his past four starts. His mechanics are way off and he is  telegraphing his pitches, and once again looks like fade material vs a team that feeling a lot more confident of late and starting to heat up offensively.

BALTIMORE is 0-11  against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season.BALTIMORE is 0-10  against the money line after a 3 game span with an OBP of .260 or worse this season. BALTIMORE is 0-9  against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span this season. BALTIMORE is 8-23(against the money line against right-handed starters this season like White Sox Starter right-hander Lucas Giolito .
BALTIMORE is 1-10  against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 dating back to last season.BALTIMORE is 1-14  against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons.

MLB All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less ) against a decent starting pitcher (ER 4.20 to 4.70 or less) -AL, in May games are 44-28 L/5 seasons  for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Any team (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (AL), after a win by 10 runs or more are 33-15 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago White Sox to win on the moneyline

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  May 24, 2018
Warriors vs Rockets
UNDER 219½ -105 Won
Play Type: Premium

 Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

The last two meetings in this series have stayed under by more than 20 points. At the start of this series I suggested that the series would be won by the team that exhibited the best ability to control the others explosive offense. I'm expecting both sides to be physical tonight when defending and for them to move the ball around a lot when in the offensive end , which will result in a lot of clock eating taking place which I'm betting will result in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers are obviously expecting. 
 The  Rockets have gone under 12 straight times with rest off a victory as a dog in which they shot under 40% from the field,  and have gone under 13 straight times at home    when the line is within 3 of pick after a win in which they made fewer field goals than their opponent. 
  Meanwhile, the Warriors have gone under 8 straight times with less than two days rest off a loss as a favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

HOUSTON is 15-4 UNDER  versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 201.7 ppg going on the board.HOUSTON is 21-8 UNDER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14  or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 209.2 ppg. HOUSTON is 13-3 UNDER  after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg getting scored. Houston's HC D'Antoni is 30-6 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 212.6 ppg scored.

Golden States HC Kerr is 18-5 UNDER  L/23 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more with the combined average score clicking in at 209.6 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.



Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 18 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.