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Alex Smart Sports- MLB ESPN SUNDAY NIGHTER (TOTAL)- Tests 48-25 66% Run

The Philadelphia Phillies host NY Mets in the finale of their blockbuster 5 game series this Sunday night  in a prime time ESPN MLB  feature.  Join me as I explain which side of the Total the combined score will fall on. Tests 48-25 66% Totals run. First pitch after 7:05 pm et

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 18, 2018
Rockies vs Braves
Rockies
+145 at MyBookie
Won
$145
Play Type: Premium

ANTONIO SENZATELA (R) vs. MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ (R)

Foltynewicz, the Braves starter is 0-4 lifetime with a 5.14 ERA against Colorado in five starts and two relief appearances. His team lost all 5 appearances  He went 0-2 with a 9.72 ERA against Colorado last season and according to my power rankings does not matchup well vs the Rockies 9. Meanwhile, COLORADO is 24-10 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season and have value here on the moneyline vs a team that they beat 11-5 yesterday for their 7th win and 8 games.Colorados Manager BLACK is 15-5  against the money line in road games after scoring 8 runs or more as the manager of COLORADO.

Meanwhile, Colorado's stater Senzatela,  pitched a simulated game on Tuesday in Houston, is 4-3 with a 4.56 ERA in 15 overall appearances this year after going 10-5 with a 4.68 ERA in 20 starts and 16 relief appearances a season ago as a rookie. He a quality young pitcher who could  easily help his team to the promised last here today vs the Braves in Atlanta.

Braves are 0-5 in Foltynewiczs last 5 starts vs. National League West.Rockies are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline 

Matchup Selection W/L
CFL  |  Aug 18, 2018
BC vs Toronto
BC
-135 at 5Dimes
Lost
$135.0
Play Type: Premium

Toronto's biggest issues are currently  on defense , something that the pundits thought was a  strong point earlier on this season but after allowing 38, 40, 41 points in successive weeks its become obvious theirs some big time problems on board that won't be easily fixed by the Argos coaching staff. I know the visiting BC Lions might not inspire many bettors, but from a  overall power rankings matchup perspective the Lions actually look like viable bets here to win this game straight up, and the linesmkakers agree with me. Taking the Lions SU here actually offers value as compared to laying the points at .20 less. So with that said, I recommending a moneyline selection on BC. Note: The Lions have won their L/2 visits here to TO. 

CFL Home teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games are 3-25 L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

CFL  team vs the money line (TORONTO) - with a struggling defense - allowing 7.5 or more yards/play, after allowing 7.6 or more yards/play in their previous game are 2-23 L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the BC Lions to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 18, 2018
Dodgers vs Mariners
UNDER 8 +105 Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

RICH HILL (L) vs. ERASMO RAMIREZ (R)

LA’s Rich Hill (5-4, 3.57 ERA)  Is currently in top form as is evident by allowing  two runs or less in his last five starts.  Hill is 8-1-1UNDER in its last 10 trips to the hill.HILL is 15-4 UNDER  vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse in his career. (Team's Record)with a combined average of 6.4 dog scored. HILL in 4 career  starts against SEATTLE has garnered  an ERA of 1.30 and a WHIP of 1.012 with all 4 tilts staying under the total.

 Meanwhile, the Mariners starter   Erasmo Ramirez (0-2, 6.75 ERA)  started his season off with ugly start this season and then mores bad luck as he went on the DL, until he started on  August 12 vs the defending World Series Champs allowing  just three hits, and no runs allowed , and no walks issued in five impressive innings of work. The Mariners righty  looks fresh and strong  , and I'm betting on him holding down the fort here vs a struggling Dodgers offense that has scored just 16 runs in their L/6 hames overall. Dodgers offensive star  All Star Matt Kemp  Is currently in a.big time slump going 3-for-19 (.158) the last week of action. Ramirez is 12-1 UNDER in home games when working on 5 or 6 days rest in his career.(Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.8 rpg scored.

SEATTLE is 20-9 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored.

Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 6-0-1 in Dodgers last 7 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 7-1 in Dodgers last 8 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-1-1 in Dodgers last 7 on grass.Under is 5-1-1 in Dodgers last 7 overall.Under is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 interleague road games.Under is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 during game 2 of a series.Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 8-2 in Dodgers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 8-2 in Dodgers last 10 road games.Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 games following a win.Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 8-2 in Dodgers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 10-3 in Dodgers last 13 interleague games.Under is 10-3 in Dodgers last 13 vs. American League West.Under is 9-3 in Dodgers last 12 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 6-2 in Dodgers last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Dodgers last 7 Saturday games.Under is 9-4 in Dodgers last 13 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Under is 8-3 in Mariners last 11 during game 2 of a series.Under is 18-7-1 in Mariners last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 5-2 in Mariners last 7 on grass.Under is 5-2 in Mariners last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-2 in Mariners last 7 overall.Under is 7-3-1 in Mariners last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-0-1 in Ramirezs last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 3-0-1 in Ramirezs last 4 home starts.Under is 7-1-1 in Ramirezs last 9 starts with 5 days of rest.Under is 3-1-1 in Ramirezs last 5 Saturday starts.Under is 5-2 in Ramirezs last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Play UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 18, 2018
Orioles vs Indians
UNDER 9 +103 Won
$103
Play Type: Premium

ALEX COBB (R) vs. ADAM PLUTKO (R)

The Orioles starter today Alex Cobb is a much better hurler than his record might indicate, and the   right-hander has been a viable pitcher for most of his career and under rated . He has not allowed more than three earned in any of his last six trips to the hill while garnering   a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts  . Unfortunately for Cobb he is backed by a very inconsistent of offense,  that has supported Cobb with an average of just 3.5 rpg this season. He will also have the luxury of facing a Indians line up that will not have DH Edwin Enarnacion (Injury) in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Tribe will respond with a rookie hurler Plutko that replaces , possible Cy Young candidate Trevor Bauer. Plutko is still learning on the job and  has made nine big-league appearances this season the last one a couple of weeks ago. The right-hander is 4-2 with a 4.67 ERA in his six starts for the Indians, and  since he has  never faced the Orioles, should keep their hitters off balance because of the Os lack of experience against him. 

COBB is 17-4 UNDER in August games in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.4 dog scored.

CLEVELAND is 14-4 UNDER  in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.4 rpg scored. 

Under is 5-1 in Cobbs last 6 starts overall.Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 during game 2 of a series.Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 38-18-5 in Indians last 61 Saturday games.

Under is 20-6-1 in the last 27 meetings.

Play on the UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFLX  |  Aug 18, 2018
Seahawks vs Chargers
Seahawks
+3½ -120 at YouWager
Lost
$120.0
Play Type: Premium

Seattle lost their first preseason game of the season, a 19-17 decision at home to the Colts and now the rumours of their expected demise continue to increase in ferocity. Despite of that the Seahawks still are on a 7-2 SU/ATS NFLX run and  deserve respect as underdogs in this spot. Yes, they have lost some key options, but the culture in Seattle is still hard nosed never say die, and Pete Carroll remains a fine coach, that has proven tough in the preseason during his career. Add to that the Seahawks have owned this series in the past vs the LA Chargers winning 11 of the L/15 meetings, including last seasons 48-17 NFLX shellacking . Carroll is 34-15-1 against the spread in his career in the preseason, and I'm betting on another cover here tonight. 

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 19, 2018
Astros vs A's
UNDER 7½ -110
Play Type: Premium

JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. SEAN MANAEA (L)

Oakland’s Sean Manaea (11-8, 3.44 ERA) will make his fourth consecutive home start this Sunday afternoon in Oakland    . He has permitted two runs or less in his last four home outings and gone deep in each one. Opponents are batting just .206 vs the lefty. Im betting he does well here this afternoon, vs a Houston  mired in a offensive slump scoring three runs or less in 5 of their L/6 games as they play  without  injured BA leader Jose Altuve . Meanwhile,Houston’s Justin Verlander (11-8, 2.52 ERA) will go to the hill for the Astros. Recently Verlander has pitched better on the road than at home in Minute Maid park , as is evident by allowing one run or less in  his last two road starts    Verlander has seen 70% of his away  appearances stay under  and 75% of his day games do the same. Verlander  likes  the scenery in Oakland like his pitching opponent Manaea, where he has garnered a stingy 2.52 ERA in 11 starts . The As as a team have a BA of .210 vs the veteran in his career. Everything points to a pitching duel here this afternoon. 

HOUSTON is 11-2 UNDER in road games after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span this season with a combined average score of 6.4 rpg scored.OAKLAND is 16-6 UNDER in home games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season with a combined average of 6.4 rpg scored. 

Under is 9-3 in Verlanders last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 8-3-1 in Verlanders last 12 starts with 4 days of rest.Under is 8-3-1 in Verlanders last 12 road starts.Under is 5-2-1 in Verlanders last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous gameUnder is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 vs. American League West.Under is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 overall.Under is 15-3-3 in Astros last 21 road games.Under is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 on grass.Under is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 15-5-3 in Astros last 23 games following a loss.Under is 6-2-1 in Astros last 9 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 11-4-1 in Astros last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 5-2 in Astros last 7 Sunday games.Under is 5-2 in Astros last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 5-2-1 in Astros last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Under is 3-0-1 in Athletics last 4 home games.Under is 3-0-1 in Athletics last 4 vs. American League West.Under is 6-1 in Athletics last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Athletics last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-1 in Athletics last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 7-2-1 in Athletics last 10 games following a win.Under is 15-5-1 in Athletics last 21 overall.

Play UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 19, 2018
Blue Jays vs Yankees
Yankees
-1½ -125 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

 Blue Jays starter Borucki  has not performed very well in his  the last two  trips to the hill and is fade material here according to my power rankings.  Boroucki allowed four runs and six hits in four innings of a no-decision Tuesday in Kansas City, and was said to be dealing with a toe blister and that probably still has not healed and could effect his delivery .  Meanwhile, The Yankees starter Happ faces his former Toronto teammates for the first time since the trade and is coming off a superb outing last time out vs the Rays.  The veteran southpaw allowed just one hit over seven scoreless innings of top quality work in the 4-1 victory. He has won all 3 of his starts with the Yankees since coming over in the trade and is perfect 3-0 on the RL with his team winning those games by multiple runs.He knows the Jays batting order well, and definitely has an advantage here in this spot. 

TORONTO is 7-24 SU vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season with the average margin of defeat coming by 2.3 rpg .

The Blue Jays have lost 22 straight SU in the last game of a series as a road dog of more than 130 after they lost by three-plus runs losing by ana average of 2.46 rpg, with 7 of the L/8 losses coming by 2 or more runs.The Yankees are 21-1 SU as a favorite after a game as a home favorite in which they allowed 12+ hits winning 17 of the L/20 on the runline and 11 of the L/13. The average margin of victory was by 3.11 rpg.

Play on the NY Yankees on the runline 

Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Aug 19, 2018
Sparks vs Sun
UNDER 160½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Both these teams visiting LA and their hosts Connecticut  have secured play off spots and will both want to remain rested and healthy and practice solid defensive sets before the play offs begin,  which will help this score stay on the low side of the number.

LOS ANGELES is 9-1 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) this season with a combined average 150.3 ppg and is 6-0 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) after 15+ games this season with the average combined score clicking in at 147.5 ppg.LOS ANGELES is 18-4 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 153.2 ppg .

WNBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 (CONNECTICUT) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games are 37-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Aug 19, 2018
Dream vs Aces
Aces
+4½ -110 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Premium

 Aces close out their first season since moving from San Antonio against the Atlanta Dream on Sunday in their finale at Mandalay Bay Events Center. they just missed  play off spot, this season, after losing last time out to Dallas who ended up clinching the final play off spot. QUOTE:"We played pretty good basketball. So did they," Aces coach Bill Laimbeer told the Las Vegas Review-Journal after the Aces lost to the Wings, allowing Dallas to clinch the eighth and final playoff spot Friday night. I'm betting Lamber will emphasize finishing the season strong, and I expect to see the Aces to play hard here today vs a team that despite of wanting to get a victory to secure a better play off seeding , still has to balance the fact that staying healthy is of also paramount importance, which may effect their ability to be physical. 

LAS VEGAS is 22-11 ATS against Eastern conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Aces 81.2 Opp 82.1

WNBA team vs the money line (LAS VEGAS) - explosive offensive team - scoring 77+ points/game on the season, after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half 66-15 SU L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

WNBA team (ATLANTA) - decent defensive team (40.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (43.5-46%) after 15+ games, after 2 straight games making 8 or more 3 point shots are just 12-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Vegas Aces to cover 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 18 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.