Teddy Covers Teddy Covers
I moved to Las Vegas to bet on sports as a full time professional in 1998, and I’ve been doing it successfully here in Sin City ever since.
71% Big Dance! 67% March NCAA Hoops! Purdue vs Texas Tech $$

Teddy's college hoops is RED HOT right now!  He's hit 71% in the NCAA Tournament; 24-12 (67%) in March, up more than 11 units in profits for himself and his clients.  Ride the hot hand on Friday Night and cash in with Teddy's Purdue vs Texas Tech winner, another 'right side' cash just waiting for tip-off! Don't miss another winner!

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Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 23, 2018
West Virginia vs. Villanova
-5 -105

Take Villanova (#872)

West Virginia was a good bet last weekend against a pair of lesser foes, knocking off Murray State in the opener, followed by a rout of outclassed Marshall in the Round of 32.  That was then; this is now.

The Mountaineers shot 52% from the floor and forced 16 Murray State turnovers in that victory.  Against Marshall, it was 50% shooting and 18 forced turnovers to go along with their +18 edge on the boards.  Don’t expect a similar result in any of those statistical categories in tonight’s Sweet 16 showdown versus Villanova.

Bob Huggins has only one gameplan.  West Virginia likes to disrupt opposing offenses with their press, leading to easy transition buckets at the other end of the court.  That’s why their season long offensive efficiency numbers are rock solid –easy layups and dunks and wide open three pointers in transition opportunities off turnovers have inflated those numbers.

When you put West Virginia in a half court setting, this offense doesn’t execute at a particularly high level.  And when the Mountaineers get into a game with a team that doesn’t turn the ball over, it can get downright ugly for Huggy Bear’s squad. 

Villanova doesn’t turn the ball over.  With veteran stud Jalen Brunson handling the basketball, the Wildcats finished the season ranked #11 in the country at fewest offensive possessions that end in turnovers and #8 in the country at the fewest offensive possessions that end in steals.  Basically, I don’t expect West Virginia’s press to work here – Brunson is not likely to turn the ball over in bunches.

And that sets up a real problem for West Virginia when it comes to halfcourt defense.  For the season, the Mountaineers ranked #300 in effective three point shooting defense.  All that pressing and trapping leads to wide open shooters when the press breaks down.  And Villanova is a truly elite offensive team, more than capable of knocking down open looks from beyond the arc.

The numbers do not lie.  Jay Wright’s veteran squad has posted truly elite offensive efficiency numbers all year – as good or better than ANY college basketball team over the last decade.   This ‘Nova team ranks among the true ‘class’ teams in college basketball this season, with SIX double digit scorers now that Phil Booth is healthy at the point again.  Despite all  the tight finishes and underdog winners in early Big Dance action, this is one spot where laying the points is wholly warranted.  Take Villanova.

Teddy is hitting 71% in the NCAA Tournament, including a 3-0 mark with his Big Ticket Reports.  He’s 32-19 (63%) across all sports in March, up more than 11 Units of profit for himself & his clients heading into Friday.  Go for the 3-0 Friday Night Sweep, including Teddy’s Big Ticket on Syracuse - Duke!

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 22, 2018
Lakers vs Pelicans
+2½ -110 at BMaker
Play Type: Premium

Take the LA Lakers (#805)

Over the course of the long NBA season, many teams deal with ‘bad spots’; situations where the schedule gets downright nasty for tired teams.  Occasionally, you’ll find a VERY ‘bad spot’ game that stands out; when teams are in the midst of a particularly grueling stretch of games.

And then you’ve got the spot the New Orleans Pelicans are in tonight, arguably the single worst ‘spot’ for any team all year. Here’s why:

Back before the All Star Break, the Smoothie Center had a leaky roof, forcing the Pelicans – Pacers game to get cancelled and re-scheduled.  The only time that worked for both teams was yesterday; New Orleans’ fourth game in five nights.  Now it’s five games in six nights – the only team in the league to deal with that situation; a most rare scheduling spot.

This spot would be brutal no matter what.  But last night’s game was a tough, physical throwdown that came down to the final minute, a ‘playoff atmosphere’ type of game.  Anthony Davis, following his HUGE performance down the stretch to notch the victory:  “The only thing I was thinking was like, `Please don't go into overtime’.”  Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry:"We got nothing that was easy. It was a really hard-fought, hard game to play."

It’s also worth noting this quote from Indiana head coach Nate McMillan, following last night’s loss to the Pelicans: "We didn't show any poise out there tonight. We were playing too fast. Everybody was taking quick shots and just settling. I didn't recognize our group tonight.”

This is the final game for the Pelicans in this brutal stretch.  And since losing to the Rockets in the first game, the Pelicans have won each of the next three, taking the urgency of as they’ve moved up to the #5 seed in the West.  They’ve played tight, physical battles in each of the last two nights.  I’m expecting this team to be a step slow on both ends of the court tonight; bad news against a Lakers team coming in with a chip on their collective shoulders off three straight losses and in revenge for a 139-117 embarrassment on Valentine’s Day.  Live dog here!  Take the Lakers.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 22, 2018
Loyola-Chicago vs Nevada
-1½ -105 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Premium

Take Nevada (#816)

Loyola won’t beat themselves; a fundamentally sound basketball team on both ends of the court.  But it’s certainly not going to be easy for the Ramblers to match up with Nevada’s NBA caliber talent.

Loyola is in the Sweet 16 because of two last second buzzer beaters – true.  But really, they are in the Sweet 16 because they just faced a pair of very young teams that the Ramblers were able to out-execute.  Loyola has more senior starters (two) than Miami and Tennessee combined (one).  And with seven frosh or sophomore starters for the Vols and Hurricanes; their collective lack of polish in the latter stages allowed enough of a window for Loyola to climb through.

That was then.  This is now.  Nevada might have entered the tourney with a lower seed than Tennessee or Miami, but they’re not a squad lacking in talent.  They’ve got a former NBA head coach in Eric Musselman and a pair of guys with NBA upside, including leading scorer Caleb Martin and fellow ball handling wing Kendall Stephens.  And, crucially, unlike the two teams Loyola just beat, the Wolfpack aren’t loaded with youngsters.  Five of Musselman’s six rotation players are juniors and seniors and the sixth, sophomore Josh Hall, has played more than 1200 minutes for the Wolfpack in his first two seasons in Reno.

Nevada’s lack of depth – Musselman routinely uses only one guy off the bench – has resulted in two strong factors in their favor.  First, the Wolfpack enjoy truly outstanding on-court chemistry, committing a grand total of NINE turnovers in their first two tourney games, continuing a season long testament to outstanding execution on offense. 

Secondly, the Wolfpack have developed tremendous conditioning; a team that consistently closes out games with a flourish!  Playing in altitude (both at home and on the road), and dealing with a short rotation has led to quotes like this one, from coach Musselman: “We put such a premium on being in such great physical condition, in nutrition. We go really, really hard in practice. There’s no standing around. In 2 hours, we basically get 3½ hours of work done, which conditions their bodies.”

Or this quote from Jordan Caroline, who led the Mountain West Conference in minutes played: “We did a lot more intense stuff over the summer, like the Tahoe runs. You go up to the mountains and it’s hard to breath. The elevation factor definitely makes a difference. Then when we go to other places, we have lungs for days.”  No surprise here if the Wolfpack ‘lungs’ are difference makers in this one.  Sorry, Sister Jean, but it’s time for Loyola to go home.  Take Nevada.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 22, 2018
Texas A&M vs Michigan
-3 -101 at pinnacle
Play Type: Top Premium

Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#818)

This one is real simple.  Michigan did NOT bring their ‘A’ game last weekend in either contest; particularly on the offensive end of the court.  The Wolverines went into their game against Montana having scored at least a point per possession in 18 consecutive games against Big 10 competition.  Yet Michigan didn’t manage to reach a point per possession in their wins over Montana or Houston last weekend.  They were awful from long distance as well, hitting just 28% from beyond the arc in their two games at Wichita.  That leaves Michigan without a significant betting bandwagon here, an undervalued commodity heading into Thursday’s showdown at the Staples Center in LA.

Wolverines head coach John Beilein: “We’re doing some things that I don’t know and we got to address them and try to get better at them. I think we made some of the mistakes — we have only lost seven games, but those seven losses I felt we did some things that just don’t make sense and they’re not characteristic.”  I concur wholeheartedly; and I certainly don’t expect another ‘not characteristic’ offensive game here.

To survive and advance without playing particularly well on offense in either game is a testament to Beilein’s coaching acumen.  And when we look at Beilein with extra time to prepare for the second weekend of NCAA Tournament Games, the results are consistently strong even dating back to his tenure at West Virginia; a ‘bet-on’ coach in these settings .  Billy Kennedy has no similar track record in tournament settings, and his Aggies, unlike the Wolverines, can’t play much better than they did last weekend.

Kennedy has turned to frosh point guard TJ Starks here in the Big Dance, averaging 33 minutes and 18 points last weekend compared to 21 minutes and 10 points during the regular season.  I don’t want a frosh point guard – even a very good one – against Beilein’s defense in this pointspread range.  The Aggies interior size helped them dominate North Carolina last Sunday, but their lack of quickness is poised to doom their chances against the Wolverines on Thursday.  VERY cheap price to lay with the superior team coming off a shoddy showing, in a game that I expect them to win by margin!  Big Ticket: Take Michigan.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 23, 2018
Clippers vs Pacers
-3 -110 at BetPhoenix
Play Type: Premium

Take Indiana (#852)

 Here’s the key quote from Pacers head coach Nate McMillan following Indiana’s tight loss at New Orleans on Wednesday:  “We didn't show any poise out there tonight. We were playing too fast. Everybody was taking quick shots and just settling. I didn't recognize our group tonight. We normally play good basketball and are playing connected."

And it’s surely worth noting Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry’s quote after that game: "We got nothing that was easy. It was a really hard-fought, hard game to play."  Center Myles Turner, after Indiana’s second lowest scoring game of the season: “We missed some shots that we normally make.”  All Star wing Victor Oladipo: “There were some things we could have done better. Obviously, we need to go back and watch film and correct it."

We know that Indiana is tough – they’ll give just about anyone they play a ‘hard fought’ game.  And we can expect the Pacers to bounce back strong off a ‘no poise’ game on the highway – this is most assuredly a ‘step-up’ spot for the home team, especially after losing three of their last four overall.

The Clippers just got their streak snapping victory, beating Milwaukee in Milwaukee on Wednesday thanks to a 52% shooting effort overall while hitting 15-30 from three point range.  That’s the type of shooting it takes for LA to win road games these days; a squad that isn’t playing much defense these days.  LA has allowed 120+ in each of their last four games, with their opponents hitting better than 50% of their shots against the Clippers during that span.  That type of defensive effort isn’t likely to get it done tonight!  Take the Pacers.


Some ‘cappers need a detailed biography.  Teddy doesn’t – a quick google search shows quite clearly how big of an impact this longtime Las Vegas professional has had in the sportsbetting world since moving to Vegas to become a full time bettor back in 1998. You can watch Teddy on Netflix during the week of the Super Bowl in the sportsbetting documentary ‘Life on the Line’. You can read about Teddy in the New York Times. You can read Teddy’s college basketball analysis on ESPN.com. Teddy talking NFL?  Check out Bloomberg TV!! Teddy talking March Madness?  How about on CBS! The list goes on and on.  Teddy gets the national publicity because he’s earned it; delivering a career filled with very satisfied clients…..