Teddy Covers Teddy Covers
I moved to Las Vegas to bet on sports as a full time professional in 1998, and I’ve been doing it successfully here in Sin City ever since.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 23, 2018
Hornets vs Wizards
Wizards
-3½ -107 at pinnacle
Lost
$107.0
Play Type: Free

Take Washington (#806)

Teddy went into the NBA All Star Break red hot and he came out of the All Star Break winning two out of three last night, now cashing his NBA at an 83% clip since February 12th!  Expect more winning results tonight with Teddy's Tremendous Trifecta; a pair of NBA winners as well as Ohio State - Indiana in college hoops!  Get onboard!

There’s a lot to like about the Washington Wizards right now.  The markets devalued the Wizards immediately after star point guard John Wall got hurt.  Since Wall’s injury, Tomas Satoransky and Tim Frazier have gotten the job done at the point in his absence; a duo that combined for 19 points, eight rebounds and 10 assists without a single turnover in the Wizards outright upset victory at Cleveland last night.

Wins and covers have been the norm, not the exception for Scott Brooks squad of late.  They’ve gone 8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS since Wall’s injury.  And both losses deserve an asterisk – they lost in OT against the top notch Celtics and on the second night of back-2-backs at surging Philly.  Last night’s win at Cleveland was just one outright upset during this span.  They also beat Toronto and OKC as home dogs during this recent span of excellence.

The advanced metric numbers show that Washington’s current surge is no accident.  Both their offensive and defensive stats have improved since Wall’s injury; most notably with the Wizards offense averaging more than four points per 100 possessions MORE than they did with Wall in the lineup.  The markets have devalued Washington just as they’ve surged!

All Star Bradley Beal, prior to last night’s win at Cleveland: "We take advantage of (the All-Star break) because we got a lot of guys banged up. We still got John out. ….I think (the break) came at a good time, although we were definitely on a nice, little run. We finished off well, going into All-Star (weekend), and we've got to pick it up right where we left off."

Charlotte has struggled on the second night of back-2-backs all year: 3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS.  Their last win in this role came before Christmas, and they’ve lost by double digits on the second of back-2-backs three times in their last four tries.  Coming off a game against Brooklyn last night where shots were falling – the Hornets hit 52% from three point range on their way to hanging 111 on the Nets – it’s easy to picture a scenario tonight in which the Hornets don’t hit so many contested shots.   Undervalued commodity in Washington right now….. Take the Wizards.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 23, 2018
Spurs vs Nuggets
Nuggets
-3 -103 at pinnacle
Tie
Play Type: Premium

Take Denver (#816)

At some points, the betting markets are likely to realize that this is Greg Popovich’s weakest team of the decade, especially with no timetable for Kawhi Leonard’s return.  So far, that hasn’t happened, leaving us with legitimate value betting against a San Antonio team that absolutely, positively deserves to be in the underdog role in Denver tonight.

The results do not lie.  Let me start with an excerpt of my last anti-Spurs write-up….. when San Antonio travelled right here to the Pepsi Center in Denver before the All Star Break.  Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: 

“Over the course of the last decade plus, San Antonio has generally been a ‘bet-on’ team during their annual ‘rodeo’ road trip.  But it sure doesn’t feel like San Antonio is about to go on a run this year. The Spurs are a sub .500 team since the calendar turned to 2018, just 10-13 SU in their last 23 ballgames.  They’ve lost every single road game (in SU fashion) to a .500 or better opponent since before Christmas.  In fact, San Antonio has a grand total of TWO wins all year on the road vs. .500 or better opponents.  One of those wins came at Miami in the very first week of the season, the other came by a single bucket at Portland when the Blazers were slumping badly.”

Even with LaMarcus Aldridge back in the lineup tonight, the Spurs are primed to get smacked around in Denver.  Very quietly, waaaay underneath the radar, the Nuggets have knocked off the Thunder, Spurs, Bucks and Warriors as part of a 6-1 SU and ATS run here in February – beating good teams, by margin.  Mike Malone gets  defensive minded big man Mason Plumlee back in the lineup, with Paul Millsap expected to follow shortly.  Look at this ‘bet-on’ quote from Coach Michael Malone coming out of the break: "It's just great to have those guys back. We'll figure out who plays and when they play, but being healthy with 24 games to go (is) a good thing to be."  Take the Nuggets.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 23, 2018
Heat vs Pelicans
Heat
+2½ -109 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Take Miami (#809)

I could do this write-up in a single sentence: I trust Eric Spoelstra to have his team ready in the first game following the break one heck of a lot more than I trust Alvin Gentry in the exact same spot.  Look no further than last year for a prime example. 

The Heat and the Pelicans finished with comparable records and comparable power ratings; both lottery bound squads.  But Miami came out of the break notching back-2-back blowouts (including their first game back, as a road underdog).  In 2016, they came out of the break and won outright on the road as ten point dogs.  In 2015, they won by 24 on the road in their first game after the break.  In 2014, it was back-2-back road wins coming out of the break, including an 18 point blowout as underdogs. 

Now that, folks, is a track record worthy of support! And it’s surely worth noting Miami’s current 11-1 ATS run against opponents with a winning record – no ‘mediocre’ team steps up in class better than the Heat do.  Miami with extra rest?  How about 5-1 ATS this year, once again showing that Spoelstra is as ‘bet-on’ as it gets in spots like this one.  And these Spoelstra – Gentry matchups have certainly worked in Miami’s favor, with Miami going 4-1 ATS in the five previous head-2-head meetings.

New Orleans, however, covered the first meeting between these two teams, winning 109-94 at Miami just before Christmas.  Of course, the Pelicans had DeMarcus Cousins for that game, and the Heat didn’t have Hassan Whiteside patrolling the low post.  That situation is reversed tonight.   And New Orleans also enjoyed an outlier shooting effort from three point range, nailing 15 of 25 from beyond the arc.  I’m not expecting a repeat performance.

New Orleans came out of the break last year by suffering a 30 point home loss to Houston, and they followed that up with a loss as chalk in their next game.  They didn’t cover as chalk coming out of the break in 2015 either.  Coming off three straight wins against struggling foes heading into the break (the Nets, Lakers and Pistons), I’m not expecting the Pelicans ‘A’ game here.  Live dog!  Take the Heat.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 23, 2018
Ohio State vs Indiana
Ohio State
-1½ -112 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Take Ohio State (#835)

Let me start with an excerpt from what I wrote about Indiana prior to their loss at Nebraska on Tuesday:

“Indiana has won four straight for the first time since their 2016 non-conference slate.  But a closer look shows that the Hoosiers have been taking advantage of a break in their schedule – they’ve faced the bottom four teams in the Big 10 (Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and Rutgers; a combined 12-52 in conference play) to earn this four game streak!   Coming off a ‘hot shooting’ game in a two point win at Iowa (55% from two point range and 58% from three point range), don’t expect those Hoosiers shots to fall at the same clip against the Huskers strong defense.”

The Hoosiers actually outshot Nebraska 45% to 40% in that game, but they couldn’t control the defensive glass (17 offensive rebounds for the Huskers compared to 22 defensive rebounds for the Hoosiers).  Indiana notched only ten assists, compared to their 17 turnovers.  Indiana is clearly good enough to beat Big 10 weaklings, but they’re not the type of team I trust to step up in class, even on senior night in Bloomington.

Ohio State is still very much in contention for the Big 10 regular season title under first year head coach Chris Holtmann.  His quote, talking about his senior leaders Jae’Sean Tate, Kam Williams and Andrew Dakich: “They’re the reason for the kind of year we have had. Great leadership, guys that are about doing the right stuff, good players that have worked hard to get to this point.”

Tate: “We were picked to be one of the last teams in the Big Ten, and being here in the top tier is all because of that. We really love each other.”

Junior Kieta Bates-Diop who just graduated and is likely to play in the NBA next year.  “We just talked about in the locker room how things can cloud your judgment and thoughts. Right now, the focus is winning. Now it’s Indiana. Then it’s the Big Ten tournament, then the NCAA Tournament. We’re just trying to win games and that is what I’m thinking about.”

These are ‘bet-on’ quotes all the way from a team that has won SU on the highway in B10 play at Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, Iowa and Wisconsin.  Ohio State is flat out better than Indiana – even Archie Miller knows it: “We have a quick turnaround now against Ohio State…. We need a group that’s really dialed in to play a team that is trying to win a league championship on our home floor.”  Good luck with that, coach!  Take Ohio State.

SERVICE BIO

Some ‘cappers need a detailed biography.  Teddy doesn’t – a quick google search shows quite clearly how big of an impact this longtime Las Vegas professional has had in the sportsbetting world since moving to Vegas to become a full time bettor back in 1998. You can watch Teddy on Netflix during the week of the Super Bowl in the sportsbetting documentary ‘Life on the Line’. You can read about Teddy in the New York Times. You can read Teddy’s college basketball analysis on ESPN.com. Teddy talking NFL?  Check out Bloomberg TV!! Teddy talking March Madness?  How about on CBS! The list goes on and on.  Teddy gets the national publicity because he’s earned it; delivering a career filled with very satisfied clients…..