Bryan Power Bryan Power
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 24, 2018
Astros vs Indians
Indians
+1½ -144 at pinnacle
Lost
$144.0
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Run Line Cleveland (6:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Indians at +1.5. It's a revenge spot for the Tribe, and specifically starter Mike Clevinger, who came out on the losing end to the Astros and Charlie Morton last Saturday. The same two starters face off again here as the teams will play four more against one another this weekend after the Astros won two of three in their home park last weekend. The "immediate revenge" situation is one of my favorites in MLB handicapping as you take the losing starter from the first meeting, figuring he (and the team) will be highly motivated. Add in the fact Cleveland is at home here and we can get an additional 1.5 runs to work with (at a decent price) and it's a "no-brainer" to me.

Houston's pitching staff has easily been baseball's best in 2018, but Cleveland is one of the few teams w/ the capability of matching them. Case in point, the Indians were able to win a game yday in Chicago despite scoring only one run. In fact, they held the Cubs to just one run total in two games at Wrigley. So is the fact they've allowed just 12 runs over the last six games. Clevinger has given up 3 ER or fewer in seven of his nine starts this season and that includes last week vs. Houston where he allowed three in 6 1/3 IP. Four walks (season-worst) did burn him. But it was also Clevinger's first loss of '18 after starting 3-0 w/ a 2.70 ERA. Be careful about criticizing Cleveland's .500 record as they've outscored opponents by 28 runs over the course of the season.

Houston has the best run differential in all of baseball (+110) and has won three straight after their own sweep of a NL opponent (Giants). Morton is 6-0 (6-3 TSR) w/ a 1.94 ERA and 0.934, which almost seems unfair given the other names in this rotation (Keuchel, Cole, Verlander). But winning by multiple runs in Cleveland should prove tricky for the Astros. The Indians are averaging a strong 5.8 runs per game at Progressive Field and aren't priced this way too often. Morton has also only had to make two road starts so far and his last one (5.5 vs. Arizona) was easily his weakest of the season as he finished w/ more walks than strikeouts and lasted just five innings. That was in a NL park as well w/ no DH. The Indians do no worse than a one-run loss in this revenge spot. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  May 24, 2018
Warriors vs Rockets
Rockets
+1 -110 at BetPhoenix
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Houston (9:05 ET): While the Eastern Conference Finals is being controlled by homecourt advantage, over in the West, the zig-zag theory has held firm as the loser of the previous game has stormed back to win each of the last three games. It was Houston's turn in Game 4 as they pulled the upset in Oakland, 95-92 as nine-point underdogs. I'm proud to say that I was on the dog there as the Rockets essentially "saved" their season following an embarrassing 45-point loss in Game 3 just two nights earlier. The zig-zag theory indicates tonight would be the Warriors' time to shine, however, the series has now shifted back to Houston. I've actually been on the Rockets in every game in the series, feeling that they're undervalued, and I'm not wavering from that viewpoint here in a spot where the "world" figures to be on Golden State.

We're certainly not accustomed to seeing final scores in the 90's from either the Warriors or Rockets, so the fact that Tuesday's game ended up 95-92 is definitely quite shocking. These are, after all, the two top offensive teams in the league (both in efficiency and points per game). The fact that the Rockets averaged just 90 PPG in the two games at Golden State and were still able to come away w/ a split should actually have them feeling quite well about themselves. Because they average 113.9 points per game at home and should be considered a virtual lock to improve upon the shooting of the last two games, each of which saw them shoot just 39 percent from the floor. In particular, we should see them improve from three-point range where they were just 23 of 72 the L2 games. In the two home games in this series, Houston scored 106 and 127 pts.

Now Golden State is going to improve upon its own 39% shooting from Game 4 as well. They shot better than 50% from the floor in each of the first three games. But I'm not sure they get to that level here. Even if they do, they still have to win, which is not easy to do for the road team in Houston. The Rockets are 40-9 SU at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.2 PPG. They are also 52-14 SU this year when the trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capella take the floor together. Consider that Golden State jumped out to a 12-0 lead in Game 4, led by 12 again in the fourth quarter and still lost. And that was at home! Those advantages won't be present here in Houston. While both may end up playing, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala (the latter being questionable) are not 100% and that has an impact on a shortened Warriors' rotation that really can't play its bigs due to the Rockets' "small-ball" lineups. 8* Houston

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  May 24, 2018
Warriors vs Rockets
OVER 219½ -108 Lost
$108.0
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Over Warriors/Rockets (9:05 ET): While the Eastern Conference Finals is being controlled by homecourt advantage, over in the West, the zig-zag theory has held firm as the loser of the previous game has stormed back to win each of the last three games. It was Houston's turn in Game 4 as they pulled the upset in Oakland, 95-92 as nine-point underdogs. I'm proud to say that I was on the dog there as the Rockets essentially "saved" their season following an embarrassing 45-point loss in Game 3 just two nights earlier. The zig-zag theory indicates tonight would be the Warriors' time to shine, however, the series has now shifted back to Houston. Looking at tonight's total, it's significantly lower than any previous O/U line in the series and certainly lower than what it was for any of the regular season matchups. I'm on the Over in Game 5.

We're certainly not accustomed to seeing final scores in the 90's from either the Warriors or Rockets, so the fact that Tuesday's game ended up 95-92 is definitely quite shocking. These are, after all, the two top offensive teams in the league (both in efficiency and points per game). The fact that the Rockets averaged just 90 PPG in the two games at Golden State and were still able to come away w/ a split should actually have them feeling quite well about themselves. Because they average 113.9 points per game at home and should be considered a virtual lock to improve upon the shooting of the last two games, each of which saw them shoot just 39 percent from the floor. In particular, we should see them improve from three-point range where they were just 23 of 72 the L2 games. In the two home games in this series, Houston scored 106 and 127 pts.

Golden State is obviously no slouch on offense either. They shot better than 50% each of the first three games of the series before dipping down to 39% themselves in Game 4. This is a team that averages 113.0 PPG on the year w/ almost no dip on the road. Coming off an outright loss as a favorite, they are 13-8 Over this season. Their 14 assists in Gm 4 marked a series low and - shockingly - their assist percentage in the series is below that of the Rockets. That should start to change. Only Kevin Durant and Steph Curry scored more than 11 pts Tuesday and that's not likely to be the case again tonight. Both teams having two sub-20 pt quarters in Game 4 is something that certainly isn't likely to repeat itself again here. I'm taking advantage of this "low" number. 10* Over Warriors/Rockets

SERVICE BIO

The time has come for Bryan Power to EXPAND! Having achieved a tremendous amount of success, Power is expanding his reach in 2015 as he proudly announces the formation of Power Sports Picks (that's "PSP" for short). Power Sports Picks promises to deliver the same quality analysis (and same amount of winning) as before, only now with a FULL TEAM assembled, the SKY IS THE LIMIT!