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Larry Ness |
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| Ness was 4-0 on Fri and he's now 21-11 +$7.5K L9 days! Larry was 4-0 w/ his NFL last Sun. He's now 8-2 ALL NFL over the first two Sun's of action. He's now 16-10 +$5K NCAAF YTD. He's 3-0 w/ his signature Football! |
| FREE PICKS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018 Air Force vs. Utah State |
Utah State -10½ -105 at PINNACLE |
in 11h |
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My free play is on Utah State at 10:15 ET. The Air Force Falcons and the Utah State Aggies, a pair of teams from the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference, will square off Saturday night at Maverik Stadium in Logan, Utah. The Falcons opened the 2018 season with a 38-0 win over Stony Brook 38but then lost 33-27 at Florida Atlantic 33-27 on September 8. Air Force had a bye last weekend and now face a Utah State team that's 2-1, losing only at Michigan State on August 31 as about a 24-point underdog. The Aggies come in off back-to-back blowout wins at home, 60-13 over New Mexico State and 73-12 over Tennessee Tech. It looks as if Air Force will go with Isaiah Sanders at QB, who was 8-of-13 for 164 yards, one TD and one INT in the loss at FAU. The Air Force D was unable to contain FAU, allowing 525 total yards, including 471 through the air. They became the first service academy beaten by the Owls in their school history. Air Force never led in the game, falling behind 13-0. After giving a Michigan State team all it wanted at East Lansing in Utah State's opener, the Aggies have shown no mercy in the last two weeks, piling up 133 points in blowing out New Mexico State and Tennessee Tech. Utah St has scored 60-plus points in back-to-back games for the first time in school history. Both teams have struggled in conference games ATS as of late. Air Force is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 conference games, while Utah State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 conference games. It's true that the Falcons have a 4-2 edge in the all-time series and have won three straight meetings (including a 38-35 home win in the last meeting on November 25, 2017) but Utah State's offense has been terrific (not many schools score 31 at Michigan St) and the team's 54.7 PPG ranks 4th-best in the nation. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 21, 2018 Rockies vs Diamondbacks |
Rockies +115 at BMaker |
Won $115 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies 10* (9:40 EST). Whether Zack Godley or Zack Greinke throws for Arizona in this one, I like German Marquez in this spot for sure (note that whether it’s Godley or Greinke going, I like Marquez in this one. This play is based entirely around the fact that the Rockies are starting Marquez.) Marquez (12-10, 3.96 ERA) has been on fire of late, and he’s been especially tough on the road (5-6 with a 5.14 ERA at Coors Field and 7-4 with a 2.74 ERA away from friendly confines.) The in-decision of who is actually going to get the start here for the home side only strengthens this play. I’m banking on Marquez continuing his strong end of season form, play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 21, 2018 Giants vs Cardinals |
Cardinals -150 at BMaker |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals 8* (8:15 EST). I don’t think that that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner (6-6, 3.14 ERA) who was lifted from his last start for precautionary measures with side issues. He’s been given the green light here, but note that while the veteran is a “lights out” 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA at home, he’s just 2-4 with a 5.42 ERA on the road. The home side counters with John Gant (7-6, 3.53) who continues to throw consistently down the stretch, having allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last seven trips to the hill. Note that Gant owns a respectable 3.54 ERA at home so far, along with an elite 2.33 ERA in all night games. An injured Bumgarner on the road? I’ll take Gant and the hard-hitting home side for what I think is a very reasonable mid-sized price. Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 21, 2018 Mets vs Nationals |
Mets -145 at BMaker |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets 8* (7:05 EST). I think this line could easily be a lot larger considering the massive talent discrepancy on the mound tonight. The Nationals’ Joe Ross has actually looked decent in two straight no-decisions in his first action since July 2017, but Mets’ ace Jacob deGrom has been on an entirely different level all year, easily posting Cy Young worthy numbers to this point. deGrom (8-9, 1.78 ERA) continues to throw at an elite level every night and note that he’s 5-3 with a 1.91 ERA on the road. Ross (0-0, 3.60) will be given every opportunity as the season winds down, but I think he’s in well over his head in this spot. I look for deGrom to out-distance his still un-proven counterpart. Lay the price, play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Sep 21, 2018 Washington State vs USC |
Washington State +3½ -106 at pinnacle |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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My 10* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK is on Washington State (10:30 EST). Washington State comes into this Friday night contest on top form, still unbeaten after destroying Easter Washington 59-24 at home Saturday. USC comes in deflated after losing its second straight, most recently a listless 37-14 setback on the road in Texas. The Cougars will be feeling confident here as well, because when these teams played last year on September 29th, it was WSU which left with the 30-27 home win. So far Washington State is second in the nation in passing with 421 yards per game. Overall the team is averaging 43.7 PPG and conceding just 14.3. QB Gardnew Minshew already had 1,203 yards with eight TD’s and three INT’s. He also has 30 rushing yards another score on the ground. James Williams has 137 yards on the ground and four TD’s. The Trojans are averaging just 274 yards per game and just 20 PPG scoring average, which is ranked 114th. The defense hasn’t been great either, conceding 25 PPG. QB JT Daniels has 817 yards, one TD and three INT’s. I’ll point out that the Trojans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four conference games, while the Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four after scoring 40 or more points in their previous contest. I have a hard time seeing USC slowing down the Cougars’ high-flying offense. Washington State has proven to be extremely tough defensively in the early going as well. Grab the point, play on the Cougars. Good luck…Larry |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Age: 63 (turns 64 in November). Years in handicapping: Larry entered his 34th year in the industry in August of 2017. Achievements in handicapping: 1985 Castaway’s Pro Football Challenge Champion, then the most prestigious handicapping contest in Las Vegas; 1999 Stardust Invitational semi-finalist. A member of the original cast of Proline, the nation’s longest running pre-game handicapping show on the USA-TV network (also hosted Sports Desk on the same network). Although well-known on TV for his expert game analysis and no-nonsense handicapping style, Larry may be best known for his radio work. He hosted his own syndicated call-in radio show, Sports Central. It aired live from Bally's Casino in Las Vegas in the early to mid-90s and at one time was heard in more than 100 markets. Systems used for handicapping a game: Fundamental and statistical analysis. "I'm not typically a trend and system kind of guy," Ness says. "I look at team strengths and weaknesses and compare them. It’s an all-encompassing thing and over 30-plus years, you get good at it." 34-Club Play: It represents Larry's 34 years in the business and gets his highest star rating (10*s). Expect no more than one of these plays per month, per sport during the regular season. LEGEND Play: Larry's often been referred to as a Las Vegas legend and he's 'borrowed' the title for his other "signature play.". Larry's LEGEND Plays were previously available to only a select group of private clients but they are now available to all, through the internet. Like his 34-Club plays, expect no more than one play per month, per sport (rated 10*s). PERFECT STORM: Larry just added these plays the last few years and his accompanying expert analysis makes these popular plays self-explanatory (rated 9 or 10*s). Situational Stunners: Larry's a fundamental handicapper at heart but he does pay attention to team and situational trends (especially in MLB). When his fundamental handicapping and a strong trend or situation match up, he releases a Situational Stunner. He just started releasing these plays in MLB '09 and he's expanded them since, to all sports (rated 8, 9 or 10*s). Las Vegas Insider: Throughout his 34 years, Larry has become known as "the ultimate Las Vegas insider." The contacts he's developed over more than two decades (on both sides of the 'counter'), are arguably "unmatched!" He confers daily with 'his friends' and when "all the stars align on the same game," Larry releases an exclusive Las Vegas Insider (rated between 8 and 10*s). Oddsmaker's Error Plays: Larry uses this term with "great respect" (and not very often), as he counts among his very closest friends many of Las Vegas' most famous and respected Sport Book directors (past and present). However, when Larry feels "the line is significantly off," he'll release one of these "not to be missed" plays (rated between 8 and 10*s). Weekly and Weekend Wipeout Winners: Larry added this self-explanatory moniker just a few years ago. They've become immensely popular and why not? Who wouldn't want a game that has "blowout written all over it," supported by Larry's expert analysis (rated between 8 and 10*s). Late-Breaking Plays: Larry will always go back and take a "second look" at each day's card, after posting all his games. When he finds something he missed the first time around, he'll release a Late-Breaking Play. These plays are more prevalent in sports like baseball and basketball than football (typically rated at 8 or 9*s). Superstar Triple Play: Over the years, many of Larry's regular clients have clamored for more three-game reports. You asked for it and Larry's responded. Back in the late 1980s and into the mid 1990s, 900-numbers became "the rage." While a panel member of Proline (see above), Larry created the Superstar Triple Play. One call got you three Superstar Triple Plays (in a particular sport). For almost a decade, anywhere from 1,500 to 3,500 callers responded each weekend, when Larry offered his famous "Superstar Triple Play" pitch on Proline. Starting in 2009, Larry began going "Back to the Future!" Almost every Saturday (college) and Sunday (NFL) this football season, get three plays on a single report from Larry (many will be TV games), the originator of the "Superstar Triple Play!" Release Times: Larry likes to release his picks early so that clients have as much time as possible to shop around. NFL and College Football plays are posted very early in the week (sometimes almost up to a week in advance.) NBA, College hoops and NHL are all posted the day before the game goes off. And the same goes for MLB, with selections posted the night before the game. Sometimes life gets in the way and Ness won't release until the morning of the game, but for the majority of the year Larry likes to say: "The earlier the better!" Sports and conferences he excels at handicapping: MLB is Larry's favorite sports to handicap, saying the money is in the statistics. He 'loves' the daily action and the long season. "If I had to pick one sport, I would chose baseball because you’re playing pitchers, streaks, teams that are hot and cold," Ness says. "I also love the NBA and NFL playoffs, the college bowl games plus the college basketball tourneys, which are seasons unto themselves." Quote: "No one works any harder and my work-product speaks for itself," Ness says. "I have a no-nonsense style and my logic is easy to follow. Anyone buying my plays will know exactly what I was thinking when I made the selection. After 34 years, the Larry Ness brand is instantly recognizable and my analysis ranks with the best in the industry." |