After yesterday’s 5-2 defeat, I think the home side offers great value in this bounce back situation.

The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg (2-1, 3.08 ERA), who gave up four runs off four hits and one walk with five K’s in a fortunate no-decision against the Rockies on Sunday. Strasburg’s sample size is still too small to completely tell where he’s at right now in 2018, as his 0.99 WHIP is elite, while his 9.2 K/9 is considerably lower than his career norm.

The home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-0, 2.87), who struck out nine over six frames in a win over San Diego on Monday night. Ryu was rocked in his season debut, but since then he’s been a rock himself, posting 17 K’s and allowing just four hits and two runs over his last 12 innings of work. 

After last night’s collapse and loss by ace Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers are more than ever relying on solid and consistent production from Ryu.

LA’s four-game win streak in which it scored 37 runs came to a crashing halt last night, but I think the hungry home side is poised for a bounce back as it looks to avenge yesterday’s series opening setback. Consider a play on the Dodgers tonight.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the under Devils/Lightning (3:05 EST).

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I look for this total to sneak below the posted number. 

Tampa comes in off a hard-fought 3-1 win in Game 4 to grab a 3-1 series lead and in my opinion, everything points to a similar final combined score here as well.

New Jersey comes in having gone 21-22 on the road, averaging 2.98 GPG and conceding 3.19 in those contests. Corey Schneider is 6-11 with a 3.25 GAA on the road, but he has gone 5-6 in 12 career games against Tampa Bay with a 2.94 GAA. Keith Kinkaid is 14-9 with a 2.97 GAA on the road and 2-4 with 3.33 GAA lifetime against the Bolts.

Tampa Bay is 31-12 at home so far this year, averaging 3.60 GPG in those contests and conceding 2.91. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskly stopped 27 of 28 shots last time out to move to 3-1 with a 2.26 GAA in the playoffs thus far. Note that he was 26-9 with a 2.84 GAA at home this season.

I’ll point out as well that New Jersey has in fact seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing, while TB has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after a win by two goals or more.

I believe the conditions are finally right for a tight-checking, lower-scoring goaltenders battle. Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (8:05 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to James Paxton (1-1, 4.57 ERA), who comes in off his best start of the season, holding the hard-hitting Astros to just one run off three hits with three walks and seven K’s over six innings in the eventual victory. 

Since getting rocked for six runs in his season debut, Paxton has been on fire with a 24/5 K/W and 2.65 ERA since. 

Note that Paxton was particularly effective in this spot last year, going 5-2 with a 3.66 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with the venerable Bartolo Colon (0-0, 1.45), who has defied the odds once again and looked great in his limited time thus far, giving up one run off one hit and one walk over 7.2 innings of work. 

In my opinion, imminent regression is imminent for Colon though, who was a horrible 3-8 with a 6.81 ERA on the road last season. 

I’ll point out as well that Seattle is already 5-3 (+2.7 units) in all night games, while Texas is 5-8 (-1.1 units) in the same position.

In my opinion, this line could easily be a lot bigger. Great value, play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Rays (6:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe..

The visitors turn to Kyle Gibson (1-0, 3.68 ERA) who was shelled for five runs off seven hits and four walks over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against Houston on Wednesday. After a great opener, Gibson has struggled in back-to-back outings, failing to make it out of the fifth frame in either. 

The home side counters with Blake Snell (2-1, 2.95), who comes in off a gem against Tampa Bay on Monday, giving up one earned run off five hits over 6.1 innings while striking out nine and walking none in the eventual 8-4 victory. 

Snell comes in off back-to-back solid outings, giving up two earned runs to go along with 19 K’s over 12. innings of work in that span. Overall Snell has 26 K’s over his 21.1 frames this season. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that the oddsmakers have made a major mistake. In my professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” 

Play on Tampa Bay.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominators is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:05 EST).

Last year Marcus Stroman (0-1, 7.98 ERA) was 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA, but so far he’s struggled. Suffice it to say, I think he starts to get back on track here. Stroman most recently gave up four earned runs over five innings, while also striking out five in a no-decision against the hard-hitting Indians on Friday. 

Stroman’s last start was skipped over due to postponement. I’ll point out that Stroman was 6-3 with a 3.72 ERA on the road last year.

The home side counters with Jordan Montgomery (1-0, 4.70) who gave up three earned runs off five hits while striking out four and walking none in a victory over the Tigers on Friday. Note that it was Montgomery’s first quality outing of the year. Previous to that he’d given up ten hits to the Orioles. Despite his 1-0 record Montgomery owns a very hittable 4.70 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

I’ll point out as well that Toronto is 5-2 (+2.6 units) already this season against southpaws, while New York is just 5-6 (-3.8 units) against right-handed starters.

I’m banking on Stroman outlasting his counterpart and that’s going to be more than enough in my opinion for the visitors to score the comfortable upset.

Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (7:35 EST).

It’s essentially do-or-die for the Wolves, who will be risking life and limb to try and avoid an 0-3 hole. 

Chris Paul exploded for 27 points in Game 2, after being held to just 11 in Game 1. James Harden though was just 2 of 18 from the floor and finished with 12 points. 

The Wolves were dead cold shooting over the first two games. Nemanja Bjelica would end up coming off the bench to lead all scorers in Game 2 with 16 points.

But with the shift in venue, I’m expecting Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler to have a much better effort this evening. The duo had a great overall campaign, but they combined for just 16 points in Game 2. 

I’ll point out as well that Houston has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors all year, going just 18-20 ATS after a win by ten points or more and just 5-9 ATS when playing with two days rest.

Conversely this is a spot in which the Wolves have excelled in, going 4-1 ATS in their last five after scoring 85 points or less.

With their season essentially on the line, I look for the hungry Wolves to at the very least take this one right down to the wire.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* O/U ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is the UNDER 76ers/Heat (2:35 EST).

So far I’m 2-1 in this series, taking the 76ers over the first three games thus far. It’s going to be an all out war in Game 4, as Miami looks to control the pace of this one. Suffice it to say, when the smoke clears at the end, I’m expecting this total to sneak below the posted number.

I said Joel Embiid would be a difference maker in Game 3 and the big man would not disappoint, logging 30 minutes and going for 23 points, seven boards, four assists and three blocks. 

Philadelphia shot a blistering 50 percent from the floor, including an unreal 52.9 percent from range. Suffice it to say again, I am not expecting the 76ers to match those extremely efficient numbers against a Heat side which will be doubling down with its defensive effort. 

I also predicted that Dwayne Wade would have a major letdown in Game 3 after his historic performance in Game 2 which saw him score 28 points, grab seven boards, three assists and two steals. Wade would indeed have a letdown in Game 3, finishing with eight points, five assists, two boards, one steal, one block and four turnovers. Goran Dragic was a bright spot for Miami in a losing cause with 23 points. 

Miami was competitive in the first half of Game 3, but came out completely flat in the second. The Heat though will be risking life and limb today to try and even things up and I expect a full four quarter effort.

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten after a win by ten points or more, while Miami has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of 15 this year already when trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Flyers (3:05 EST).

I believe that the “do or die” Flyers offer much better than just a “punchers chance” in Game 6 on home ice. 

The Penguins come in averaging 3.3 GPG, led by Sidney Crosby with five goals so far in the Playoffs. Pittsburgh has to score a lot of goals, because it concedes a lot as well, so far 3.0 per night. Matt Murray has been terrible for the most part between the pipes in the postseason. 

The Flyers average 3.0 GPG and Sean Couturier leads the way in the playoffs with two thus far, while Jakub Voracek has three assists. Brian Elliot and Petr Mrazek have so far been poor overall in the playoffs as well. 

The City of Philadelphia has gotten used to winning lately and the Flyers come home filled with confidence. I think that wave of emotion will be the difference maker for Philadelphia tonight.

Play on the Flyers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Bucks (1:05 EST).

I have taken Milwaukee through the first three games of this series and I am obviously just 1-2. Game 3 was a decisive victory finally for the Bucks though and suffice it to say, I look for the team to carry that momentum over here. 

After back-to-back duds, the Bucks finally exploded on both ends of the court in Game 3’s decisive 116-92 result. 

It wasn’t even close as the Celtics would get no closer than 14 over the final three quarters. In the end Boston shot 40 percent from the floor and went just eight of 24 from range. Al Horford was a bright spot in the losing cause with 16 points, while Greg Monroe added 15 points and 12 boards. 

Milwaukee played like a desperate team from start to finish in Game 3 and I believe Giannis Antetokounmpo and company can smell the blood in the water. Antetokounmpo had 19 points, five boards, six assists, two steals and two blocks, while Khris Middleton had 23 points, eight boards and seven assists. 

The Bucks got big time production from their secondary weapons though which was key, as Eric Bledsoe and Jabari Parker each poured in 17 points. 

Note as well that Boston is just 19-23 ATS in its last 42 after allowing 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after scoring 115 points or more.

The Celtics caught the Bucks napping in Game’s 1 and 2, but Boston came back down to Earth in Game 3. I expect the home side to once again play with a fierce passion and to tie this series up.

Lay the points, play on the Bucks.

Good luck…Larry